Form
On the face of things, England go into the series as the form side. They’ve won five of their last six Test series (they drew the other) and seven of their last eight Tests. Australia, meanwhile, have not won either of their last two Test series (they drew against Pakistan and lost against India). In all cricket (Test, ODI and T20), Australia have won only two of their last 11 matches. They’ve even slipped to fifth, one place below England, in the Test rankings.
But touring Australia is notoriously tough. England have not won an Ashes series there since 1986-87 and have lost the last five series heavily. Of those 25 Tests, they’ve lost 18 and won just three.
Australia also have an awesome record at Brisbane, the venue for the first Test. They remain unbeaten at the Gabba since 1990 and have won 16 of the 20 Tests played there.
On this tour, however, England have left little to chance. They’ve enjoyed a longer – and more successful – warm-up period ahead of the Tests and do not have the injury concerns that hampered them on recent Ashes tours.
Crucially, they also know that their opponents – sans Warne, Gilchrist, McGrath, Hayden, Langer et al. – are a pale shadow of Australian teams of old.
Batting
Not since they were weakened by the Packer exodus of the late 1970s has Australia’s batting appeared more brittle. Their line-up contains three 35-year-olds (Ponting, Hussey and Katich) who appear to be on the wane, while Marcus North is also under pressure to retain his place. In the first innings of the recent round of state games, their top eight batsmen managed just 41 runs between them.
It would be unwise to under-estimate the class of Ponting and Hussey, however, while Australian lower-order, including the likes of Mitchell Johnson and, perhaps, Steve Smith, is more than capable of scoring valuable runs. On flat pitches, they will remain very hard to dislodge. It’s worth remembering that England have not taken 20 Australian wickets in a match in Australia when the Ashes have been at stake since December 1986.
England’s batsmen, meanwhile, have been in fine form. Of the top order, only Trott has failed to record a half-century in the warm-up games, with Strauss and Bell batting superbly. This series could well define Bell’s entire career: all the evidence suggests he is ready to blossom.
Questions remain, however. Strauss and Cook both struggled against Pakistan’s seam attack (they averaged 25 and 23 respectively in the summer’s Test series) while Kevin Pietersen is enduring the most prolonged spell of poor form in his career. England’s lower-order – bolstered by the likes of Swann, Broad and, perhaps, Bresnan – will have to contribute with the bat if England are to prosper. England’s lack of a reserve specialist batsman is also a concern. If injury – or poor form – strikes Cook or Struass, England will be obliged to open either with Trott or send for support. Neither option is ideal.
Fast bowlers
England’s attack has enjoyed a good year. The swing of Anderson, the probing hostility of Broad and the steadiness of Finn have combined to overwhelm all visitors during the summer of 2010, with the first two now rated among the top 10 bowlers in Test cricket.
Perhaps, however, England were flattered this summer. The Bangladesh and Pakistan batting line-ups were woefully weak, while it is unlikely England’s seamers will stumble upon conditions so favourable to them in Australia. It is unthinkable that the host batsmen will roll over so obligingly.
In particular, there are question marks over the effectiveness of James Anderson in Australia. His record in the country – five Test wickets at a cost of 82 apiece – is ugly and it remains to be seen if he can swing the Kookaburra ball. If he does not strike with the new ball, England are overly reliant on tall, hit the deck seamers and their attack will lack variation. Anderson is a much improved bowler, however, and will surely improve that grim average.
Steve Finn is very much a work in progress, too. While he is admirably accurate and gains bounce, Finn’s bowling may still lack bite and this series will demand a sharp step-up in class. Chris Tremlett, who has more pace if less consistency, may challenge for Finn’s place before the series is over.
In Stuart Broad, England have a potential player of the series. Blessed with pace, height, bounce and the ability to move the ball in the air and off the seam, Broad is a far more rounded cricketer than the last time he played Australia. The one concern is over his exact role, however. Is Broad a strike bowler or a containing bowler? Should he be aiming for the top of off stump, or the badge on the Australian helmets? If he is not clear exactly what is expected of him, it could prove costly.
The Australian fast bowling attack is decent rather than daunting. In Doug Bollinger and Mitchell Johnson, the hosts possess two hostile left-armers, though Johnson’s inconsistency must worry Australia. He endured a poor 2009 Ashes and has claimed just 11 wickets at 43.45 in his last two Test series. Siddle, too, is honest and impressive rather than inspiring. Ben Hilfenhaus is dangerous, however. He took more wickets (22) than anyone else on either side in last year’s Ashes campaign and his late swing and sharp pace and could cause England’s top-order substantial problems.
Spin
England look stronger in this department. In Graeme Swann, England posses the bowler rated second in the world in the Test rankings and a man with 105 Test wickets in 22 Tests since January 2009. Shane Warne has recently called him “probably the best spinner in the world”. Monty Panesar, bowling better than he has for several years, remains a capable reserve.
There are a couple of reasons for concern, however. For a start, Swann did not enjoy a particularly successful Ashes series in England last year (he claimed 14 wickets at 40.5 apiece), while he yet to take a Test wicket in Australia. History is against him too: English off-spinners have tended to struggle Down Under, though a willingness by umpires to grant more LBW appeals (thanks to the influence of Hawkeye) should help him. Still, overseas spinners have taken their wickets at an average cost of 49 (the figure rises to 56 when considering only Englishmen) apiece in Australia since 2000, which must be a cause for concern.
Australia’s Nathan Hauritz is an under-rated bowler, too. Though unremarkable, he is canny and tidy and out-bowled Swann in at least two Tests last summer. Australia also have several contenders to exploit Kevin Pietersen’s apparent weakness against left-arm spin.
Still, this is an area where England should excel and Swann has the character to revel in the expectation.
Team spirit
Hewn in adversity and tested in times of triumph and disaster, England have developed an excellent team spirit over the last couple of years. When Andy Flower and Andrew Strauss took over the team management, England were in decline. Their first series ended in an embarrassing defeat in the Caribbean, but they battled back to win the Ashes in 2009 and the World T20 in 2010. England have a settled, balanced side who, generally, know their roles and what is expected of them. They also have decent strength in depth in most departments. They have proved united in adversity – just think of the Leeds debacle of 2009 or the tensions of this summer’s series against Pakistan – and have enjoyed eachothers’ success in times of victory. Such spirit will serve them well over the coming weeks.
Australia are less settled. Ponting has won more Tests – as a player and captain – than any man in the history of the game (the country has had three Prime Ministers while he has been their Test captain), but the sense is of a man coming to the end of his reign.
Such is their uncertainty over their best XI, that they named a 17-man squad ahead of the first Test. They even sacked one of their selectors – Merv Hughes – recently. They have injury worries, form worries and a fear that Ponting’s long-reign as captain may be coming to an end. While home advantage is usually a big advantage, it could also prove to be a mixed blessing if home supporters lose patience with their team.
Prediction
England to win and win handsomely.
Were this series a boxing bout, the referee would have stopped it by now. Had it been a horse race, Pakistan would have fallen at the first. And had it been anything to do with swimming, Pakistan would surely have drowned.
As it is, just one day into the second Test of a four-match series, and Pakistan are being embarrassed. Less than a week after registering their lowest Test score against England (80 at Trent Bridge), they set a grim new record: bowled out in under 40 overs for just 72.
There are some mitigating factors. Pakistan are in a rebuilding phase and their young batsmen – four of their top seven can muster just 15 Tests between them – have precious little experience in such bowler friendly conditions.
Nor can the last 12-months have been easy. The team has been torn apart by off-field issues and the lack of stability – and the flooding – in their homeland can hardly have helped.
England’s bowlers deserve credit, too. In these conditions, Jimmy Anderson is a masterful performer and the movement he gained here – at will and in both directions – would have tested any batsmen. Stuart Broad has also made huge strides this summer and produced a performance of maturity and skill. Instead of straining for pace, both men were content to allow the conditions to help them and remain patient. It wasn’t as if Pakistan’s batsmen made them wait for long.
And that’s the problem. For though Pakistan do have some reasons to feel hard done-by, a total of 72 is hardly excusable. Particularly after winning the toss.
Their batsmen lacked application and technique. Despite having arrived in England over a month ago, they are still pushing, prodding and thrashing at the moving ball as if they are on subcontinent pitches. This contest resembles amateurs against professionals.
Farhat and Butt were both drawn into pushing at deliveries angled across them, Shoaib Malik was brilliantly caught by the impressive Matt Prior after driving at a fine outswinger, before Azhar Ali, petrified at pushing at an outswinger, was trapped by one that nipped back. Umar Akmal was punished for not moving his feet and pinned in front, while Zulqarnain Haider looked out of his depth as he edged a good length ball. Umar Amin flashed optimistically and was well caught at third slip.
There can be few excuses for their fielding, either. They missed between four or five chances (depending on how harshly you want to judge them) in the 34.2 overs of England’s reply, providing their deserving bowlers with very little chance of clawing their way back into the game. Imran Farhat’s drop at first slip, off Mo Asif, when Jonathan Trott had just eight, was a shocker and suffice it to say that the performance of debutant Zulqarnain Haider, who followed his first ball dismissal with an untidy display behind the stumps, suggests the search for a reliable wicket-keeper goes on.
Where do Pakistan go from here? There aren’t any quick fixes. So they have to show patience with this group of players. They have shown they have ability – it is, remember, only a couple of Tests since they defeated Australia – and they will improve. Perhaps the likes of Mohammad Yousuf might add steel to the middle-order, but it’s asking a great deal for a man who hasn’t played cricket for months to come into this side and precipitate an immediate improvement. He’s not an alchemist.
Besides, England have a few concerns of their own. Alastair Cook, who was fooled by a slower ball bouncer and miscued a pull to slip, looks horribly uncomfortable with anything on or outside off stump – which is quite a problem for an opening batsmen – while Kevin Pietersen is pushing for the ball without confidence. He has been dropped twice already. Andrew Strauss edged a good one that swung back at him sharply.
On a larger scale, the ECB must be concerned about the attendance at Edgbaston. After the debacle of Leeds, where Pakistan supporters stayed away in their droves, just 10,000 attended the first day here. A similar number are expected on the second day, but much fewer from there on. It means Warwickshire will fall somewhere below budget (they were anticipating sales of around 45,000 over the course of the game).
It would nice to think that lessons might be learned. Ticket prices here (£60 for adults and between £10 and £20 for under-16s) are patently too high and Pakistan supporters were again very thin on the ground. But, with the whole of the English game desperately scrabbling for every last pound in order to pay-off their eye-watering debts, it will take a major re-think before anything changes.
The ECB are currently close to securing the right to host next year’s Pakistan v India series; it is to be hoped Indian supporters show more interest in the fortunes of their Test side.
